Saturday, October 31, 2009

Breaking NY23: Dede Scozzafava Drops Out

Robert Stacy McCain: Scozzafava Quits

Watertown Daily Times: SCOZZAFAVA SUSPENDS 23RD CAMPAIGN (h/t: nikkibama)

Dede Scozzafava drops out of NY23!

Hoffman Responds to Scozzafava Quitting the Race

Scozzafava throws support to Hoffman.

Follow the story here as it develops.

How important is this? A Hoffman victory would be ominous for liberals.

The GOP Establishment Must Be Purged as the GOP Loses in NY-23

Siena Poll: NY23 Race too close to call: Hoffman 35%, Owens 36% Scozzafava 20%

PPP: Poll taken this morning in NY-23 shows Hoffman by 19 over Owens (with caveats)

Look for Hoffman to garner most of Scozzafava's Independent and GOP support.

More at Memeorandum

More at 73wire

Discussion: Left Coast Rebel

Bookmark and Share

Breaking NY23 Siena Poll: Hoffman & Owens Tied

Siena Poll: NY23 Race too close to call: Hoffman 35%, Owens 36% Scozzafava 20%

Update: Scozzafava drops out, throwing all bets off...

Look for Hoffman to garner most of Scozzafava's Independent and GOP support.

Scozzafava throws support to Hoffman.

PPP: Poll taken this morning in NY-23 shows Hoffman by 19 over Owens (with caveats)

Intrade: Hoffman surging

More from local news source. (h/t: nikkibama)

More at Memeorandum

More at 73wire

What a Hoffman victory could mean for liberals.

Bookmark and Share

Friday, October 30, 2009

Hoffmania: What does it mean?

Establishment, beware.

As independent Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman has emerged as the front runner in the congressional race in New York's 23rd District, the political establishment is trying to figure out what it means:

...neither major party knows what to think about the Hoffman candidacy and both are trying to adjust their spin to accommodate what a victory by the Conservative Party candidate would say about the national political field.

Instead of spinning, the pols should be begging...for mercy:

Hoffman's rise is a manifestation of a series of recent poll numbers that show Americans growing increasingly frustrated with and distrustful of the federal government.

...the strong anti-incumbent sentiment may well hurt Democrats more in 2010 simply because they hold more seats in the House and the Senate. But, a Hoffman win is rightly understood not as a rejection of either party but rather a rejection of the political system as a whole. And, if it comes to pass, that will mean lots of competitive races and nervous incumbents next November.

On November 3, a fed up Mr. Smith, goes to Washington.


The Real Significance of Hoffman in NY-23

Video: Governor Pataki endorsing Hoffman (h/t: Left Coast Rebel)

Public option premiums higher than private plans

Kerry wants Law Library report on Honduras retracted

Bookmark and Share

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Breaking: Hoffman and Owens Tied in Kos Poll

Hoffman Surge!

Hoffman and Owens are tied in the Research 2000/[ultra liberal] Daily Kos poll:

Owens 33 (-2), Hoffman 32 (+9), Scozzafava 21 (-9)

Hoffman gained 9 points in only one week!

Hoffman and Owens (D) are statistically tied, well within the margin of error. Hoffman clearly has the momentum...liberal progressive Dede Scozzafava is in serious trouble.


It is always sensible to treat sponsored, internal surveys with extra skepticism when they are publicly released. Political scientists that have studied public polls find that partisan surveys typically show a an average bias of 2 to 4 percentage points favoring the sponsoring party.

This, of course, means a completely unbiased result would be even better for Conservative Doug Hoffman. Kos is pulling for the liberal progressive in the race, Dede Scozzafava.


Video: 23rd Congressional Debate

In shift, GOP leaders embrace Hoffman

Bookmark and Share

Dede: The Best Choice for Liberal Progressives

Is "liberal progressive" a redundant phrase? In most situations, it probably would be. But Dede Scozzofava, the leftist assemblywoman running for Congress in New York's 23rd Congressional District, is no moderate progressive. As noted in the video above, she's an ACORN/NARAL/Card Check/Tax-and-Spend liberal.

Democrats in New York's 23rd District should feel proud. They have two great Pelosi Progressives to choose from: Bill Owens, and Dede Scozzafava. Do your homework Democrats. I do believe you'll find Dede to be the best choice for liberal progressives.


Who's worried about Doug Hoffman?

Liberals groups step up attacks against Hoffman in NY-23 race

NY-23 Debates: Three links you need to read: 1... 2... 3...

House to unveil $1 trillion health care bill…paid for with NEW TAXES & $500 billion in Medicare "cuts"

Welcome to Resort Obama: Amenities of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue Go to The Highest Bidders

"Hope And Change" Take A Beating 1-Year After Election

Bookmark and Share

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

A Little Bird Told Me

You come to RightKlik expecting the very best in unscientific speculation and conjecture, and I do not intend to disappoint.

Let's address some of the burning questions of the day. Three important elections are less than a week away. Can we predict the outcomes? I think we can.

First, let's look at the special election in New York's 23rd District. This three-way race is particularly important because it features a conservative battling a Democrat and a liberal Republican:

[The] liberal Republican anointed by the GOP establishment for the special congressional election in Upstate New York will probably run third, behind the conservative Republican running on the Conservative Party line, who may in fact win.

The lesson activists around the country will take from this is that a vigorous, even if somewhat irritated, conservative/populist message seems to be more effective in revitalizing the Republican Party than an attempt to accommodate the wishes of liberal media elites.

So what do the most recent polls show? It's a good time to be conservative:

(Click to enlarge.)

Conservative Doug Hoffman has been steadily improving in the polls, while the liberal Republican, Dede Scozzafava, has been falling like a rock.

But here's some good advice:

Be very cautious of ALL NY 23 polling. Why? There's nothing driving turnout; figuring out WHO is going to vote is near impossible.

How can we gauge turnout? I have an idea. What about Twitter? If the die hard geeks, pajama-clad nerds and armchair pundits of the Twittersphere can't tell us something about grassroots enthusiasm, I don't know who can.

Examining the crudest and most unscientific of indicators, I think we can determine who will come out on top in NY-23. Let's look at each candidate's number of followers (as of 10-27-09):

Doug Hoffman (dougforcongress): 1,124
Bill Owens: No Twitter account
Dede Scozzafava (DedeScozzafava): 239

If the number of Twitter followers is any indication, Scozzafava will be smashed by Hoffman. How about Owens? With no Twitter data, it's impossible to make an "apples-to-apples" comparison, but in this era, if you're not plugged into the social media, you're not going to win any important elections.

Of course there's no direct correlation between social media and political charisma, but if you're so out of touch that you don't even have someone on your team who can set up a Twitter account for you, you're pretty hopeless. Perhaps I'm wrong...we shall see soon.

Final RightKlik call: #1 Doug Hoffman (C), #2 Bill Owens (D), #3 Dede Scozzafava (R)

Next Race: Virginia's gubernatorial election. This one's a lot easier. Here are the most recent poll results:

Bob McDonnell 58%
CreighDeeds 41%

It won't even be close, and the Twitter data confirm it:

Bob McDonnell (bobmcdonnell): 6,555
Creigh Deeds (CreighDeeds): 3,689

Final RightKlik call: #1 Bob McDonnel (R), #2 Creigh Deeds (D)

Next Race: New Jersey's gubernatorial election. Another tough call. Here's what Rassmussen found:

Given the margin of error on the polling data (and conflicting interpretations of factors relating to turnout), Rasmussen says there's no way to predict the outcome of the NJ race.

That's what a responsible pundit would say.

As with Rasmussen's poll, the Twitter data give a small advantage to Christie:

Jon Corzine (JonCorzine): 4,031
Chris Christie (ChristieforNJ): 4,342
Chris Daggett (ChrisDaggett): 1,928

Final RightKlik call: #1 Chris Christie (R), #2 Jon Corzine (D), #3 Chris Daggett (I)

We'll revisit this on November 3rd.

Update: Analysis of California's 10th Congressional District Special Election.

Democrats hold an 18-point voter registration advantage in the Bay Area. An early October poll commissioned by the Harmer (R) team and the NRCC that showed the Republican candidate was 7 points behind Garamendi.

Internal GOP poll:

John Garamendi 41%
David Harmer 34%

Unfortunately, the Twitter data (10-29-09) confirm the polling data:

John Garamendi (JohnGaramendi): 1,708
David Harmer (Harmer4Congress): 1,064

Final RightKlik call: #1 John Garamendi (D), #2 David Harmer (R)


Yes, We Can [Doug Hoffman]

New ad running in NY-23 with Fred Thompson

New CfG Ad (looks like a two-person race)

Bookmark and Share

Obama Movies

Coming soon to a theater near you:

The Lyin' King

Jurassic Pork

Czar Trek

The Serious Stuff

Hoffman Surges Into Lead in NY-23…New CFG Poll shows Hoffman 31.3%, Owens 27.0%, Scozzafava 19.7%

Dems have become more concerned about Hoffman’s chances of overtaking their candidate, Bill Owens

R.S. McCain: Doug Hoffman, Ordinary American

Dems will quadruple the payroll tax? Remember Obama's solemn promise.

Medicare’s "Low Administrative Costs" Cost You $60 Billion a Year.

Obamacare: Hospitals go broke

Global warming might be solved with a helium balloon and a few miles of garden hose.

Bookmark and Share

Monday, October 26, 2009

The GOP is suicidal

If the GOP wants to go the way of the Whigs, the Republican establishment is on the right track. Instead of backing away from their support of the tax-and-spend, Big Union-loving, ACORN-affiliated Democrat wannabe, the Republicans continue to invest hundreds of thousands of dollars in RINO Dede Scozzafava's campaign. And instead of backing down from their attacks on the Conservative challenger, the GOP is planning a relentless barrage against Doug Hoffman so that Scozzafava does not finish last.

Those afflicted with Mad RINO disease forward arguments such as the following:

I understand the urge to clean one’s own house, but as I learned from Morton Blackwell, “don’t make the good the enemy of the perfect.” The issue in New York’s 23rd may very well be resolved due to pressure from national conservatives, but a campaign of eating our own is not something we should relish.

Question: What's "good" about a GOP nominee who is far to the left of center on fiscal and social issues?

Question: Why is alienating the conservative base preferable to sweeping the Arlen Spectocrats into the dustbin?

Question: Who's eating whom in this situation?

Over at Breitbart's BigGovernment, readers have strong opinions on the subject:
  • "You cannot ask people to compromise their values anymore for the sake of liars and cheats."
  • "When you ask people to vote party over principle we get leftist idiots like Snowe, Collins, Specter and Jeffords. Say no."
  • "Once we cut the tumor of liberalism out of our party, the healthy body of the GOP will start to attract new voters. So what if we lose a bit of weight getting rid of these RINOS? We'll gain it all back, and more, when we're a party that embraces and embodies conservative values."
  • "The GOP establishment seems hellbent for destruction. And they want our money to help them take us down too. We have to push back. NY-23 is an excellent place to do it."
  • "Republicans should view this New York race as a wave of the future and get their act together ASAP."
Are we naive to hope the GOP will finally change its tune when Hoffman wins?


Hoffman Surges Into Lead in NY-23

Will the GOP will go down in flames before it corrects course?

A grassroots movement so powerful, so energized…it doesn't wait around for the next Reagan to show up

5 reasons to support Doug Hoffman in New York's 23rd congressional district

Profits for filthy trial lawyers: 14%. Profits for Health Insurance Providers: 2.2%.

Associated Press FACT CHECK: Health insurer profits not so fat.

The Inevitability Myth: Health care reform is not a fait accompli.

New York Times: How an Insurance Mandate Could Leave Many Worse Off

How this country punishes work effort