[The] liberal Republican anointed by the GOP establishment for the special congressional election in Upstate New York will probably run third, behind the conservative Republican running on the Conservative Party line, who may in fact win.
The lesson activists around the country will take from this is that a vigorous, even if somewhat irritated, conservative/populist message seems to be more effective in revitalizing the Republican Party than an attempt to accommodate the wishes of liberal media elites.
So what do the most recent polls show? It's a good time to be conservative:
Be very cautious of ALL NY 23 polling. Why? There's nothing driving turnout; figuring out WHO is going to vote is near impossible.
How can we gauge turnout? I have an idea. What about Twitter? If the die hard geeks, pajama-clad nerds and armchair pundits of the Twittersphere can't tell us something about grassroots enthusiasm, I don't know who can.