Thursday, May 13, 2010

Intrade: GOP gains 35 seats in the House

Via the AP:

House Republican leader John Boehner recently said the GOP could pick up 100 seats this November. Now, the Republican National Committee's political director says the party has its eye on 130.

"Our scoring as of today has us looking at about 130 House seats as potentially competitive," Gentry Collins said Tuesday. He hastened to add: "Just to be clear, I'm making no claim that we are going to pick up 130 House seats."

Republicans see the potential for significant gains this November as support for President Barack Obama and congressional Democrats slide. The GOP needs to win 40 seats to reclaim control of the House. Currently, Democrats hold 254 seats and Republicans 177 with four vacancies.

The chart above depicts a prediction of the outcome of the 2010 US Congressional races based on betting data from

Each bar represents an individual Intrade contract in which wagers are placed on the likelihood that the Republican party will pick up that number of seats.

Current prediction: Republican gain 35 seats (Updated 5-12-2010)

Contracts which are trading below the 50/50 mark are shaded a lighter red. Contracts above that mark are shaded dark red. This shading helps visualize the threshold between events that are not forecasted to happen and events that are. Historically the party in power loses seats during mid-term elections, and 2010 looks to be no exception. Intrade is in concurrence with major polls which forecast a Republican gain in seats ― but in a prediction market, traders aren't just answering a pollster's questions; they are putting their money where their mouth is.

The Senate...

The map above depicts a prediction of the outcome of the 2010 US Senate Races based on betting data from

States where there is no 2010 Senate race are colored gray. States where the Democrat is leading the Republican are colored blue, and red states indicate a Republican lead.

Net pickup: +8 (R)

Primary Elections in May


The Rattler - III said...

The republicans had the house and senate. Not really a hill of beans difference from the crap in there now. Lets hope the gains come from those following the constitution who's goal is to serve and not rule. My allegiance is to the country and not the party. Hopefully they won't soon forget that or their heads can go on a stick just as easily.

nacilbupera said...

Excellent info, RK, thanks for sharing! I still say we need 2 of the big 3 to win the Senate: IL, CA, NY...and the races are all viable.

JaneLovesJesus said...

'taint enough for my taste. I'd like the # of seats flipping red to resemble the famous hockey-stick graph.

Rattler, I don't disagree, but we have to move as far to the right/constitution 'as possible'. And perfection is rarely possible. Fight fiercely in the primaries, but in the general elections, I think we have to go with the lesser of 2 weasels.

JaneLovesJesus said...
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