The optimism that Obama’s supporters project is unfounded in hard data and historical precedent. Against the numbers, his fans point to GOTV, state polls that buck the national norm, and magical statisticians who assure them that all is well. The only thing missing is the inevitable last minute appeal to the ghost of Harry S. Truman.
Read the rest: Obama optimism: why it is unfounded
UPDATE: Barring an unprecedented shift, Barack Obama is unlikely to win the popular vote.
UPDATE II: Put a fork in Obama (but as Glenn Reynolds would remind us, don't get cocky).