Rick 1, Mitt 1, Newt 1

I'm surprised Newt won so big in SC. Intrade had his probability of winning at about 7% as recently as a week ago. I seriously considered buying up all of Newt's shares at that point, but I never expected Newt to crush Romney like this.

There's a lot of discussion in the conservosphere about how and why Newt's debate performance has impacted his momentum. But almost everyone agrees that the debates have been the decisive factor.

I think the take home message is that the "Not-Romney" sentiment is still very strong, and that sentiment has coalesced around Newt as a consequence of Newt's forceful repudiation of the abusive anti-conservative media establishment.

That said, I still think it's Romney's nomination to lose. This might be the last Not-Romney win for quite some time.

As I noted earlier, the next five contests will be in Romney-friendly territory. Newt has an advantage in the south, but we're going to be out of the core southern states for a while now. Florida is up next, but Florida is more of a regional hybrid with swing state tendencies, and Florida's Jeb Bush, a popular ex-governor, is expected to endorse Romney soon (update).

Addendum: Good insights from The Other McCain:

...Mitt’s “inevitable” mojo spell is now decisively broken, and the questions now are multiple: Can Mitt get his mojo back? Will Newt be able to avoid further “drama”? Can Santorum get the financial resources to stay in the race, hoping to be the last man standing if Newt auto-destructs?

Read the rest...

Update II: Good insights from Red State:

Newt Gingrich Wins. What It Means...

The base is revolting because they swept the GOP back into relevance in Washington just under two years ago and they have been thanked with contempt ever since...

Read the rest...

Update III: DON'T MISS THIS:

Conservatives (accurately) perceive the media mainstream to be a de facto organ of the liberal left, and by extension, the Democratic Party - and they understand that conservative governance is absolutely impossible unless that organ is defeated or co-opted. On the latter count, ask President John McCain how his co-option efforts went. When Newt Gingrich crushes a hapless journalist, he isn't just tossing up a parlor trick: he's demonstrating an indispensable prerequisite to conservative governance today.

Read the rest...

Protecting Obama With Juiced-up Sex Stories

Once again, Newt uses his jujitsu against a partisan media attack:

"I am tired of the elite media protecting Barack Obama by attacking Republicans."

(Transcript)

Newt did the viewers a great service by forcing John King out of left-wing hack mode and into the role of humble moderator.

One of the four men in the debate could become the next president of the United States, but instead of discussing issues of national importance (which might make Barack Obama look bad), CNN was launching partisan attack, wasting valuable time on old tabloid gossip.

Newt changed the tone for the better, for the rest of the debate.

Newt hasn't earned my coveted endorsement, but I think he won the day.

Romney vs Newt in a nutshell...

Two moderate, big-government Republicans:

...one a bland businessman from an extremely blue state who used his power as governor to implement an expensive, coercive health insurance program...

...the other a controversial pedagogue from a red state who used his power as Speaker of the House to implement welfare reform.

Update:

“Romney’s signature achievement was Romneycare, while Gingrich’s signature achievement was welfare reform.” But, last night, I had a thought that tipped the balance in Romney’s favor. Both Romney and Gingrich have betrayed conservatism. But Romney’s betrayals came in a liberal state surrounded by liberals.

In the White House, Romney would be surrounded by beltway insiders and the liberal press, comfortably insulated from tea party pressure and red state heat.

How's that gonna play out?

I Found The Path To Victory...

...and you can too!

I found a cool website that allows the user to tinker around with the states to configure any number of potential election scenarios.  The map is shown with 2012's electoral view in a tie, with Obama states in blue and Generic Republican states in red.

You can click on the map flip states to Republican red or Democrat blue depending on what you think might happen with any given match-up.  States also can be flipped to neutral so you can account for potential toss-ups.

Perhaps most importantly, the tally for the electoral college changes in real time as you make changes.

For deeper analysis, you can compare with previous years' results (e.g. 2004 and 2000).

When you're done, you can share your map with friends via email, Facebook, Twitter, etc. with easy-to-use buttons on the page.

Here's my map for a narrow win for John Q. Generic Republican (with the map's URL below the image):

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=etB (revised 12.16.11)


I think more than one of the Republicans running for president could pull off something like this, don't you?

If you want to share your own generic or candidate-specific map with the rest of us, I'll post it below...


PS: This chart is very helpful.

UPDATE: John wants to think big. Very, very big:

Newt: Go to Church, Pay Taxes, Get Amnesty (VIDEO)

It's a simple formula: Go to church, pay some taxes ... get your amnesty!

Bonus points for having grandchildren and for breaking the law for at least 25 years:

If you’ve been here 25 years and you got three kids and two grandkids, you’ve been paying taxes and obeying the law, you belong to a local church, I don’t think we’re going to separate you from your family, uproot you forcefully and kick you out.

I smell a straw man.

Here's a longer clip for context.

When Newt Gingrich gave his pro-amnesty opinion, I fired off a few tweets:

Who knew that you can't enforce laws if it will inconvenience families? There are lot of people in jail who apparently didn’t get that memo.

The Lonely Conservative calls it "Newt's Heartless Moment," referring to Rick Perry's famous anti-enforcement gaffe.

On the plus side, the MSM will probably reward Newt by cutting back on the smears for a couple of days. (UPDATE: Within two hours of the debate's end, the fawning begins.)

"He's a good little Newt!"

UPDATE II: Gingrich mentioned the Krieble Foundation's "Red Card Solution."

More of Newt's immigration statement:

Should Mitt Romney Switch Parties?

The one-term wonder from the People's Republic of Massachusetts doesn't like to, uh, win -- at least not when it comes to beating Democrats:


Gee, Mitt, are you worried that "victory" over Democrats evokes the notion of Jimmy Carter surrendering the White House to Ronald Reagan in 1980? I know you don't want to emulate Reagan, but how far will you go with that attitude?

Folks, the weak-kneed Romney we see today is the toughest Romney we'll ever know. After he wins the GOP nomination, he'll be back at the campfire singing Kumbaya with Democrats faster than you can say "ObamaCare."

If the GOP wants a man in the White House who will compromise with Democrats even before the negotiating begins, Romney is the one.

Hat tip: Legal Insurrection

Sarah Palin's Presidential Endorsement

This topic deserves a post of its own. Now that Palin is out, pundits and political junkies want to know: Who will she endorse? What do you think?

If you'd like to share this poll at your blog, fire me an email (rightklik at gmail).

Eliminate The Elephant

We will eliminate Republican candidates one by one. Vote for the candidate you would LEAST like to run against Barack Obama. Names are in random order. We'll weed out candidates until the least contemptible candidate is the only one left:

Cheaters will be caught! Don't waste your time.

If you want to share this poll at your blog, leave a comment below. We'll run this poll for a few days and then queue up the next one.

Beating Obama — Round 2

Ron Paul eliminated in Round 1

Round 2

Beating Obama

Round 1

Brilliant: Speaking Truth to Power

Finally...a powerful and compelling message from a GOP leader.  Michael Steele examines Obama's "reign of error."

Highlights:

• The era of apologizing for Republican mistakes of the past is now officially over.  
  
• We are going to take the president head-on. The honeymoon is over. The two-party system is making a comeback, and that comeback starts today.
  
• This popular politician who is our president is engaged in the most massive expansion of the old industrial age model of government that our country has ever seen.
• Candidate Obama was very moderate in his views, but President Obama could not possibly be further to the far left. 
  
• Candidate Obama talked about fiscal responsibility, about government living within its means. But President Obama is saddling our unborn grandchildren with mountains of debt.
  
• Candidate Obama boasted about cutting taxes, but President Obama, trust me, will have to raise taxes to pay for his massive top down government explosion.  Let’s not have that lie stay out there any longer - 95% of the people will not get a tax cut.
  
• Candidate Obama was all about being bipartisan, but President Obama could not be more partisan.
  
• So...what's the loyal opposition to do with this popular president? We are going to speak truth to power. We are going to speak directly, and we are going to take him on.
  
• President Obama now wants to cap and tax every single American into paying higher utility rates. 
  
• President Obama and his allies in Congress have now put their taxing eyes on soft drinks. 
  
• President Obama and Democrat leaders want a brand new tax on our health care benefits and are devising a plan to give federal government bureaucrats control of our health care system. 
  
• President Obama is backing a plan to take away the basic right of every American worker to cast a private ballot.
  
• President Obama has for the first time in our history politicized the US Census process by putting political appointees in his White House in charge of it. 
  
• President Obama and his far left allies are flirting with an attempt to squelch the basic freedom of speech of our nation's airwaves. 
  
• President Obama's Attorney General is trying to use Mexican drug gang wars as a reason to advocate a new gun ban in America.
  
• President Obama's Administration has disparaged our war heroes and veterans by suggesting that they are a threat to our safety, when the truth is they are the cause of our safety. 

• You cannot bring about prosperity by discouraging thrift.
  
• You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong.
  
• You cannot help the wage earner by pulling down the wage payer.
  
• You cannot further the brotherhood of man by encouraging class hatred.
  
• You cannot establish security by borrowing money.
  
• You cannot help the poor by destroying the rich.
  
• You cannot build character and courage by taking away one's initiative and incentive.
  
• You cannot help individuals permanently by doing for them what they should do for themselves.

• Too bad the chattering classes inside the Beltway are too busy fretting over phony disputes and intra-party intrigue to notice that a change has indeed come to America. This change comes in a tea bag!
  
• Over the coming months Republicans will be bold in our approach. We will offer real solutions, and we will do so aggressively and without apology. We will focus on freedom and the freedom of the individual.
  
• The Democrats act as if the government is the provider of the very liberties we enjoy. No fashionable politician or president, no matter how popular, can give them to us nor will we allow them to take them from us.

[emphasis mine]

Great message, Steele.  Now let's back it up with substance.

More

Transcript of Michael Steele's Speech To RNC Chairmen's Meeting; video of the speech in its entirety (31:19).

Rasmussen: 42% Favor Free Health Care. 

Free?! Is it coming from Santa or the Tooth Fairy?

Pelosi's toxicity... is she the liberal Newt?

Watch This: The National Debt Road Trip

...now share it.