A Little Bird Told Me

You come to RightKlik expecting the very best in unscientific speculation and conjecture, and I do not intend to disappoint.

Let's address some of the burning questions of the day. Three important elections are less than a week away. Can we predict the outcomes? I think we can.

First, let's look at the special election in New York's 23rd District. This three-way race is particularly important because it features a conservative battling a Democrat and a liberal Republican:

[The] liberal Republican anointed by the GOP establishment for the special congressional election in Upstate New York will probably run third, behind the conservative Republican running on the Conservative Party line, who may in fact win.

The lesson activists around the country will take from this is that a vigorous, even if somewhat irritated, conservative/populist message seems to be more effective in revitalizing the Republican Party than an attempt to accommodate the wishes of liberal media elites.

So what do the most recent polls show? It's a good time to be conservative:

(Click to enlarge.)

Conservative Doug Hoffman has been steadily improving in the polls, while the liberal Republican, Dede Scozzafava, has been falling like a rock.

But here's some good advice:

Be very cautious of ALL NY 23 polling. Why? There's nothing driving turnout; figuring out WHO is going to vote is near impossible.

How can we gauge turnout? I have an idea. What about Twitter? If the die hard geeks, pajama-clad nerds and armchair pundits of the Twittersphere can't tell us something about grassroots enthusiasm, I don't know who can.

Examining the crudest and most unscientific of indicators, I think we can determine who will come out on top in NY-23. Let's look at each candidate's number of followers (as of 10-27-09):

Doug Hoffman (dougforcongress): 1,124

Bill Owens: No Twitter account

Dede Scozzafava (DedeScozzafava): 239

If the number of Twitter followers is any indication, Scozzafava will be smashed by Hoffman. How about Owens? With no Twitter data, it's impossible to make an "apples-to-apples" comparison, but in this era, if you're not plugged into the social media, you're not going to win any important elections.

Of course there's no direct correlation between social media and political charisma, but if you're so out of touch that you don't even have someone on your team who can set up a Twitter account for you, you're pretty hopeless. Perhaps I'm wrong...we shall see soon.

Final RightKlik call: #1 Doug Hoffman (C), #2 Bill Owens (D), #3 Dede Scozzafava (R)

Next Race: Virginia's gubernatorial election. This one's a lot easier. Here are the most recent poll results:

Bob McDonnell 58%

CreighDeeds 41%

It won't even be close, and the Twitter data confirm it:

Bob McDonnell (bobmcdonnell): 6,555

Creigh Deeds (CreighDeeds): 3,689

Final RightKlik call: #1 Bob McDonnel (R), #2 Creigh Deeds (D)

Next Race: New Jersey's gubernatorial election. Another tough call. Here's what Rassmussen found:

Given the margin of error on the polling data (and conflicting interpretations of factors relating to turnout), Rasmussen says there's no way to predict the outcome of the NJ race.

That's what a responsible pundit would say.

As with Rasmussen's poll, the Twitter data give a small advantage to Christie:

Jon Corzine (JonCorzine): 4,031

Chris Christie (ChristieforNJ): 4,342

Chris Daggett (ChrisDaggett): 1,928

Final RightKlik call: #1 Chris Christie (R), #2 Jon Corzine (D), #3 Chris Daggett (I)

We'll revisit this on November 3rd.

Update: Analysis of California's 10th Congressional District Special Election.

Democrats hold an 18-point voter registration advantage in the Bay Area. An early October poll commissioned by the Harmer (R) team and the NRCC that showed the Republican candidate was 7 points behind Garamendi.

Internal GOP poll:

John Garamendi 41%

David Harmer 34%

Unfortunately, the Twitter data (10-29-09) confirm the polling data:

John Garamendi (JohnGaramendi): 1,708

David Harmer (Harmer4Congress): 1,064

Final RightKlik call: #1 John Garamendi (D), #2 David Harmer (R)

More

Yes, We Can [Doug Hoffman]

New ad running in NY-23 with Fred Thompson

New CfG Ad (looks like a two-person race)